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Special Paper 43, Simulating tsunami inundation at Bandon, Coos County, Oregon, using hypothetical Cascadia and Alaska earthquake scenarios, by R. C. Witter, Y. Zhang, K. Wang, G. R. Priest, C. Goldfinger, L. L. Stimely, J. T. English, and P. A. Ferro.

Download publication Part 1 (1.8 GB .zip); see "Supplemental Data" section below for Parts 2 and 3 of publication).

Abstract: We develop 15 full-margin rupture models for Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes that define vertical seafloor deformation used to simulate tsunami inundation at Bandon, Oregon. Rupture models include slip partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried megathrust fault. Coseismic slip is estimated from turbidite paleoseismic records (Goldfinger and others, 2011) and constraints from tsunami simulations at Bradley Lake (Witter and others, in press). Alternative scenarios are evaluated using a logic tree that ranks model consistency with geophysical and geological data. The hydrodynamic computer model SELFE (Zhang and Baptista, 2008) is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation and inundation for 15 Cascadia earthquake sources and two Alaska earthquake sources: the 1964 Mw 9.2 Prince William Sound earthquake and a maximum hypothetical earthquake beneath the Gulf of Alaska. Results describe levels of confidence (in percent) that a Cascadia tsunami will not exceed simulated wave runup. Maximum Cascadia tsunami wave elevations at the shoreline vary between ~4 and ~25 m above the model tide (mean higher high water) for earthquakes with 9 to 44 m slip and moment magnitude (Mw) 8.7 to 9.2. The simulated inundation for Cascadia scenarios is consistent with the spatial extent of deposits left by the AD 1700 tsunami and older predecessors. Simulations of the 1964 tsunami agree with limited historical observations of wave heights and runup in Bandon. We recommend using the maximum Cascadia tsunami scenario and the maximum Alaska tsunami scenario for delineating evacuation zones for the Oregon coast. The most likely tsunami scenario (M1) or the large splay fault scenario (L1), which encompass ~80 to 95 percent of the hazard, should be considered for land use planning and future revisions to building codes along the coast.

SP-43 includes:

SUPPLEMENTAL DATA: Two supplemental data sets containing GIS files and data for all 29 runs are available.

Part 2 (4 GB .zip); Part 3 (1.6 GB .zip):

Part 2 (also see individual readme.txt files and refer to the report text appendices):

- GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS) FILES (compressed (.rar) files): GIS, vector shape files (point, line and polygon .shp files) and raster graphic files (Esri grid) developed in Esri® ArcGIS(TM) 9.3.1. WGS 84 (World Geodetic System, 1984) for 26 of 29 runs (alphabetically): AK64_Run06, AKmax_Run18, L1_Run21, L2_Run22, L3_Run31, M1_Run23, M2_Run24, M3_RUN32, S10G_Run15, S11G_Run16, S12G_Run17, S1G_Run05, S2G_Run07, S3G_Run08, S4G_Run09, S5G_Run10, S6G_Run11, S7G_Run12, S8G_Run13, S9G_Run14, SM1_Run25, SM2_Run26, SM3_Run33, XL1_Run19, XL2_Run20, XL3_Run30; note that runs SM1_Run25, M1_Run23, L1_Run21, and XL1_Run19 are duplicates of the runs provided on SP-43_DVD1.
Also includes Metadata folder containing generalized metadata for each data type.

.rar files can be uncompressed using a variety of free, or free to try, software programs such as WinRAR, WinZip, or 7-Zip. There are many others. DOGAMI does not endorse any particular decompression software.

- PDF of text report including appendices describing GIS and data files (duplicate of Text-report folder on SP-43_DVD1)

- readme file for gis files

Part 3 (also see individual readme.txt files and refer to the report text appendices):

- Animations folder (duplicate of Animations folder on SP-43_DVD1)

- DEFORMATION GRID DATA FILES: Tab delimited text files (.txt) including x, y, z data for earthquake deformation models used as inputs for tsunami modeling.

- GIS_part2 folder: GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS) FILES (compressed (.rar) files): GIS, vector shape files (point, line and polygon .shp files) and raster graphic files (Esri grid) developed in Esri® ArcGIS(TM) 9.3.1. WGS 84 (World Geodetic System, 1984) for 3 of 29 runs (alphabetically): XXL1_Run37, XXL2_Run35, XXL3_Run36; note that XXL1_Run37 is a duplicate of the file on SP-43-DVD1.
Also includes Esri ArcMap .mxd file, flow depth sample color ramp, and velocity sample color ramp; evacuation zone shapefiles, time history station locations shapefiles; cumulative logic tree weight shapefiles (cum__logic_tree_wt contains points attributed with the cumulative logic tree weight at each grid node used in computer simulations of 15 Cascadia tsunami scenarios developed for this study; confidence_contours.shp specifies the percent confidence that Cascadia tsunami inundation will not exceed the line); and Metadata folder containing generalized metadata for each data type.

- kmz files, Google Earth file format

- text report folder including appendices describing GIS and data files (duplicate of Text-report folder on SP-43_DVD1)

- TIME HISTORY DATA FILES: Tab delimited text files (.txt) containing tsunami wave elevation and wave velocity time series at 18 geographic locations (stations).

- TSUNAMI MODEL OUTPUT DATA FILES (.rar compressed file set): Comma delimited text files (.txt) containing model outputs for 29 tsunami simulations.

.rar files can be uncompressed using a variety of free, or free to try, software programs such as WinRAR, WinZip, or 7-Zip. There are many others. DOGAMI does not endorse any particular decompression software.

- readme files for animations, data files, deformation grids, gis files, kmz files, time histories

SP-43, Bandon text report cover   SP-43, Plate 1
Report text cover                                                                                              Plate 1

SP-43, Plate 2
Plate 2

SP-43, Plate 3
Plate 3

Bandon Oregon tsunami evacuation brochure map side Bandon area tsunami evacuation brochure
onscreen version | print version